The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we’ve had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points. Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points. On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.
Presidential
Barack Obama won the state of Michigan by a margin of 57%-41%, better than any Democrat has done in decades. Also for the first time in years, the Democrat won a majority of the counties in the state.
Congress
Democrat Gary Peters Defeated Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg by a margin of 52%-43% in the 9th District, located in Central Oakland County including the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Rochester, Troy, and West Bloomfield. This is the first time in decades that a significant portion of Oakland County has been represented by a Democrat. Peters is a former State Senator, the 2006 candidate for Attorney General, and the current lottery commissioner.
In the 7th District, located in south central Michigan, State Senate minority leader Mark Schauer defeated CFG wingnut Tim Walberg by a margin of 46%-49%. The district includes Calhoun county, home to Battle Creek, as well as Jackson County, home to the city of Jackson, which is imfamous for being the birthplace of the Republican Party. Schauer is the popular state Senator who represents the largest counties, Calhoun and Jackson. He was endorsed by the former moderate Congressman, Joe Schwartz, whom Walberg defeated in the 2006 Republican Primary.
Ballot Initiatives
Michigan voters passed a Medical Marijuana initiative by a very wide margin, 63%-37%. But the initiative that drew the most money, and that was the prime target of the conservatives, was Prop. 2, which would use state money to fund stem-cell research. Voters passed Prop. 2 by 53%-47%.
State House of Representatives
In August, I predicted that Democrats would pick up anywhere from 3-7 seats in the State House. Democrats picked up a total of 9 seats! That is three more than we won in 2006. It is also the second cycle in a row that we did not lose a single seat, a 15 seat streak. We now have a 67-43 advantage, only 6 seats away from a 2/3 majority. It also means that we are almost certain to hold the State House in 2012, just in time for redistricting. Here are the Democrats who picked up Republican held seats:
District 62-Calhoun County, Battle Creek, Albion.
Kate Segal (D)-62% Gregory Moore (R)-32%
District 101- Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties.
Dan Scripps (D)-60% Ray Franz (R)40%
District 1- Wayne County, Northeast Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe
Tim Bledsoe (D)-57% Mary Treder Lang (R)-43%
District 108- Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties
Judy Nerat (D)-56% Mike Falcon (R)-44%
District 70- Montcalm County, part of Ionia County
Mike Huckleberry-(D) 54% Tom Ginster-(R) 46%
District 21- Wayne County, Canton
Dian Slavens (D)-52% Todd LaJoy-(R) 45%
District 39- Oakland County, West Bloomfield Township
Lisa Brown (D)-52% Amy Peterman-(R) 46%
District 32- Northeast Macomb County, Central St. Clair County
Jennifer Haase-(D) 50% John Accavitti-(R) 47%
District 24- Macomb County, St. Clair Shores
Sarah Roberts (D)-49% Bryan Brandenburg-47%
And the narrow losers:
District 61- Western Kalamazoo County, Portage
Julie Rogers (D)-49% Larry DeShazor (R)-51%
District 43- Oakland County, Waterford Township
Scott Hudson (D)-47% Gail Haines (R)-49%
District 78- Southern Berrien County, Western Cass County
Judy Truesdell (D)-52% Sharon Tyler (R)-52%
District 51- Southern Genesee County
Michael Thorp (D)-47% Paul Scott (R)-53%
Democrats held all competitve seats. Here are the closest contests for Democrat held seats:
District 91- Muskegon County except Muskegon, Northeast Ottawa County
Mary Valentine (D)-54% Holly Hughes (R)-46%
District 106- Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties.
Andy Neumann (D)-53% Peter Pettalia (R)-44%
These two were actually the only remotely competitive Democrat races.
Republicans targeted also targeted the following Democrats who took over Republican seats in 2006: Marc Courriveau won 59-41, Robert Dean won 58-40, Terry Brown won 65-35, Mike Simpson won 63-37, and Martin Griffin won 63-37. Vicki Barnett also won a competitve open seat 60-40.
2010
Thad McCotter (R-11th District), the Congressman who reprents Suburban portions of Wayne and Oakland Counties, only won re-election 45-51. State Senator Glenn Anderson represents almost all of the portion of the 11th District that lies in Wayne County. Anderson may decide to run against Mad Thad in 2010. State Rep-elect Dian Slavens, who pulled an upset in her race this year, may also run. Marc Courriveau also scored an upset in a strongly Republican district in 2006. Courriveau would be the best candidate, in my opinion. He’s young, from a Republican area, and has run for congress three times in the area.
The State Senate will also be up for re-election in 2010. We have to take control of this body if we want to control the redistricting process, as we could well lose the governors office.
Races to watch are The 7th District in suburban Wayne County, which will be open, The 34th which includes heavily Democratic Muskegon County and will also be open. The 20th will also be open in 2010. It is currently the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire state. All three district were won by Barack Obama, and will be open in 2010. We only need three districts to take control, since we currently hold 17 seats to the republicans 21. These three districts will probably be the top targets of the State Democratic Party.
to see a State Senate preview. Redistricting in Michigan is going to be very important. Also a deeper rundown of McCotters seat and some other potential pickups would be great. Keep us updated with any news on that race. Marc Courriveau sounds like a perfect candidate, hopefully a draft effort pops up.
In Iowa, we lost a few statehouse incumbents (including a couple who weren’t seriously targeted by Republicans). A few more D incumbents who were considered safe only barely clung to their seats.
We picked up some R seats but not as many as expected given the number of retirements they had. At best we are looking at a net gain of 2 Senate seats and 4 House seats, but it may end up to be net gains of 1 and 3 (a few races are going to recounts).
All in all, the outcome of the statehouse races in Iowa weren’t much better than they were in 2004, even though Kerry narrowly lost Iowa and Obama won by 9 points. There seems to have been a much bigger drop-off than in 2004.
Very disappointing, and there’s a lot of grumbling here about the massive Obama field effort not doing enough for down-ticket Democrats.
IIRC, Peters ran for AG (and narrowly lost) in 2002, not 2006.
And in MI-08, Mike Rogers didn’t do so hot, either – won with just 56%.
Since the AG and SoS are both Rs and harbor gubernatorial ambitions, who should we run to target those seats?
I also agree that Michigan, along with Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida we need to get control of the districting so that we can at least make it make sense. The districting there is just stupid. lol Kudos in Michigan on sucha successful election.
I wish California had been so successful. Gays are pissed. 12,500 marched yesterday in Los Angeles, and there is another rally/protest in Long Beach tonight. At least its actually getting people motivated.